Dutch poll puts Wilders’ party in second spot

The right-wing anti-immigration party of Geert Wilders was poised to become the second-biggest Dutch party in the European parliament, exit polls showed on Thursday night, a result that will send shockwaves through domestic politics and may point to wider European trends.

The forecast – the first indication of results in pan-European polls that run across the 27-member bloc until Sunday – bore out predictions that large centrist parties stood to lose with closely targeted messages.

Mr Wilders, who faces prosecution at home for inciting hatred and who has been banned from travelling to the UK, has been riding high for several months in domestic opinion polls.

His Party for Freedom’s (PVV) decision to field its first European candidates and run a campaign focused on a strongly Eurosceptical message of “getting money back” from the EU and a categorical no to Turkish entry appeared to pay off.

A Synovate exit poll commissioned by Dutch broadcaster NOS and national news agency ANP gave the PVV 15.3 per cent of the vote or four European seats, second only to the Christian Democrats, who were forecast to win just under 20 per cent of the vote, or five seats, a loss of two.

If the actual results match the exit poll, the PVV will have beaten the Dutch Labour party (PvdA), which governs nationally in coalition with the Christian Democrats and is the biggest loser in the poll.

“This is just the beginning,” Mr Wilders said as he went into a bar of cheering supporters. “We’re going to get a lot bigger.”

The results are likely to trigger soul-searching among the governing parties. Euroscepticism has bloomed since a 2005 vote against a European constitution but significant wins by the only clearly pro-European parties meant the PVV victory was not simply based on antipathy to Europe.

The centrist D66, whose campaign slogan was “Europe Yes”, was set to increase its showing in the European parliament to three seats from one. Green Left, the other pro-European party, was set to increase its share of the vote and maintain its two seats.

While the turnout of 40 per cent was an improvement over the last European vote in 2004, it was, however, low enough for the big mainstream parties to caution against reading too much national significance into the outcome ahead of the next general election in 2011.