With the U.S. economy and financial markets showing signs of life, optimistic analysts are looking for a recovery in the all-important housing sector. They got some ammunition on June 2 from the National Association of Realtors, which said that its Pending Home Sales Index jumped in April by the most in more than seven years.
But housing can't revive as long as the market is being flooded with homes that are falling into foreclosure. And far from going away, the problem is broadening. It's not just about subprime anymore. Now, people with excellent credit who never dreamed of getting in financial trouble are being dragged down by a dangerous cycle of rising unemployment and falling home prices. That is going to prolong the foreclosure crisis and, inevitably, inhibit the recovery of the rest of the economy.
Any illusion that prime loans would emerge unscathed was shattered by a May 28 report from the Mortgage Bankers Assn. "For the first time since the rapid growth of subprime lending, prime fixed-rate loans now represent the largest share of new foreclosures," the bankers said. The grime in prime was responsible for the worst performance on record for the U.S. mortgage sector in the first quarter: Nearly 13% of loans were delinquent or in foreclosure, the most since the bankers started keeping tabs in 1972. The problems were worst in the bubble states of California, Florida, Arizona, and Nevada.
The biggest factor in this second wave of foreclosures is the inability of distressed homeowners to sell in order to pay off their debts. Prices in bubble cities such as Los Angeles, Phoenix, and Miami are down less at the high end of the market than at the bottom, according to data from Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price indexes. But that's cold comfort to people who haven't managed to sell at all. According to research by the National Association of Realtors, there are enough $750,000-plus homes on the market to cover more than 40 months' worth of demand at the current rate of sales. That's four times the rate of oversupply in the housing market as a whole.
Unemployment is exacerbating the problems at the top of the market. The jobless rate for adults with a bachelor's degree or more may not sound too high at 4.4% in April given the overall April jobless rate of 8.9%. But it's more than double the rate of 2% a year earlier. And many families in that segment of the population built their finances on the assumption of continuous full employment, so they can't cover the mortgage when even one spouse is out of work.
Consider the plight of Stephanie and Bob Walker, who bought a $799,000, three-bedroom home in Los Angeles with a view of the Hollywood sign in 2006 but are losing it because last year Bob stopped getting computer consulting work that used to pull in about $240,000 a year. Bob eventually landed a job paying $60,000, and Stephanie found work as a $13-an-hour temp, but it wasn't enough to cover their mortgage and credit-card debt, which was swelled by about $130,000 worth of home renovations. They listed the house last year for an "optimistic" $875,000 but didn't get any takers. After months of price cuts and threats of foreclosure from the bank, they're days from closing on a sale at $700,000 that will assuage their primary mortgage lender—but leave them under pressure from other creditors. "We had no expectation things would come crashing down as fast as they did," says Stephanie. "We had no one to blame but ourselves. We didn't have a backup plan if he lost his job."
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